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DeepEarningsValue

Trade earnings with the work done first.

Before each report, we publish a brief: what the street expects, what options are pricing in, and the trade we would make.

Schedule a ConsultationSee a sample brief

Implied vs actual move

NRVL · last 12 reports

Sample
Q2 ’26 · latestImplied±7.1%Actualup 4.6%Inside implied
Average implied
±6.6%
Average actual
5.2%
Beyond implied
3 of 12
Next report
±7.8%
Sample company: implied and actual move for each of the last 12 reports
ReportImplied moveActual move
Q3 ’23±6.1%up 3.2%
Q4 ’23±6.8%down 8.1%
Q1 ’24±5.9%up 2.7%
Q2 ’24±6.4%up 5.0%
Q3 ’24±6.0%up 4.1%
Q4 ’24±7.2%down 6.3%
Q1 ’25±6.3%up 2.2%
Q2 ’25±6.6%up 9.5%
Q3 ’25±6.9%down 3.8%
Q4 ’25±7.0%up 5.0%
Q1 ’26±7.4%down 7.6%
Q2 ’26±7.1%up 4.6%
Fictional company. Actual move is the next-day close.

How a play comes together

Five checks, in order. Any one of them can stop the trade.

  1. 01

    Expectations

    Consensus, estimate revisions and whisper numbers. The real bar often sits above consensus.

  2. 02

    Implied move versus history

    What options price for the report, against how far the stock moved after past reports.

  3. 03

    Quality of the numbers

    One-offs, accruals and the company’s guidance record. A beat built on a tax benefit is not a clean beat.

  4. 04

    Positioning into the print

    Short interest and options skew show how crowded the trade is. Crowded longs can fall on good news.

  5. 05

    The play

    Direction or volatility, the entry, and what would prove us wrong, written down before the report.

What a brief looks like

One page per company, written before the report.

Earnings brief

NRVL · Norvale Instruments

Sample
Quarter
Q3 2026
Reports
Thursday after the close
Call
4:30 pm ET

Expectations

Consensus EPS
$1.42up 3.6% in 30 days
Consensus revenue
$2.86Bup 1.2% in 30 days
Whisper EPS
$1.47Buy-side estimate

Implied move versus history

Implied move±7.8%
Average move, last 85.4%

Options price 1.4× the usual move.

Last 8 reactions

Next-day move after each of the last eight reports
ReportMove
Q3 ’24up 4.1%
Q4 ’24down 6.3%
Q1 ’25up 2.2%
Q2 ’25up 9.5%
Q3 ’25down 3.8%
Q4 ’25up 5.0%
Q1 ’26down 7.6%
Q2 ’26up 4.6%

Thesis

The street has gross margin flat at 38.2%. The August price increase covers two months of the quarter and adds about $0.07 to EPS. That clears the whisper without last quarter’s $0.06 tax benefit.

Risks

  • Orders slow and Q4 revenue guidance comes in below $2.95B.
  • Freight costs, flagged in Q2, absorb the price increase.

The play

Direction
Long into the report.
Entry
Up to $84.50 before Thursday’s close.
Wrong if
Q4 revenue guidance is below $2.95B, or the stock closes under $79.60 the next day.
Size
Options price a 7.8% move. Size for a gap that large.

Questions about a brief: research@deepearningsvalue.com

Around each report

  1. Before the report

    The brief goes out with the setup and the play.

  2. Report day

    Check the price against the entry and the implied move against the brief.

  3. The print

    Results and guidance land. The brief names the numbers that decide the trade.

  4. The day after

    The levels in the brief decide whether the play stays on.

Who it’s for

For traders who take positions around earnings and want the research done before the print.

Briefs assume you understand implied moves and overnight gaps, and that you size your own positions.

Questions

What is an earnings play?

A trade around a quarterly report, on direction or on the size of the move against what options imply.

When do briefs arrive?

Before the company reports. Each brief shows the report date and time at the top.

Do I need to trade options?

No. A view on direction works with shares. A view on the size of the move usually needs options.

How is risk handled?

Each play states what proves it wrong before entry. Earnings can gap past a stop, so position size sets the real risk.

Is this personal investment advice?

No. Briefs are general research and do not account for your circumstances.

How do I get started?

Schedule a consultation using the form below, or email contact@deepearningsvalue.com. Questions about a published brief go to research@deepearningsvalue.com.

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