About us
We research one event: the earnings report.
Before a company reports, we work out what the market expects, what options are pricing in and where expectations may be wrong. Then we write down the trade we would make.
What we do
An earnings report is the most predictable source of uncertainty in a stock. The date is known in advance; the size of the move is not.
Each brief covers one company: the consensus and how it has moved, what options imply against how far the stock moved after past reports, the quality of the numbers, positioning into the print, and the play.
How we work
- 01
Evidence before opinion
We start with what the numbers and the options market say, and only then form a view.
- 02
Written down in advance
Every play is set before the report: direction or volatility, the entry and what would prove it wrong.
- 03
Risk first
Earnings can gap past any stop. We state the size of the risk before the size of the opportunity.
- 04
Plain language
Short sentences and specific numbers. Samples are always labeled as samples.
What we believe
Prices carry information.
An implied move is the market’s price for uncertainty. We compare it with history before we form a view.
Expectations move stocks.
A stock reacts to the gap between the numbers and what was expected, and the real bar often sits above consensus.
Being wrong should be affordable.
Decide the exit before the entry, and size for the gap.
Clarity is a discipline.
If a thesis cannot be written in a few sentences, it is not ready.
Talk to us
Tell us how you trade earnings, and we will arrange a time.
Or email contact@deepearningsvalue.com
Briefs are general research. They are not personalized investment advice and do not account for your circumstances. Read the disclosures